2006 Conference outlook

1. Illinois: Has greatest number of returning starters, but the question remains about how capable are those players of playing Big Ten football. Zook has brought in a solid recruiting class, but it is going to take him at least four years to develop the talent necessary to compete on a yearly basis. They should be able to win at least two conference games (Indiana, Northwestern), while the will likely have three guaranteed losses (Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State), and three swing games (Penn State, Purdue, Wisconsin).

2. Indiana: I for one am not buying into the hype that Terry Hoeppner is some QB coaching guru. The guy was fortunate enough to have an elite 11 QB fall into his lap at Miami (OH), but other than that, who has he developed? If he is able to transform Blake Powers into a draftable quality NFL QB my opinion may change, until then I don’t expect Powers to lead IU to many victories. If they sweep their OOC schedule that will allow them to equal last years output. Don’t see any winnable conference games on the slate. They have one swing game (Minnesota), but the remaining seven conference games will likely be losses.

3. Iowa: Their young 2005 defense has grown up and will not break down during critical junctures this year. Drew Tate and Albert Young will be an effective tandem in the Hawkeye backfield, and allow for a very productive offense. Because of Tate, I give the early season showdown in Iowa City against OSU a decided Hawkeye advantage. This is my pick for the conference champs. Iowa's schedule is favorable in that they should win six of their conference games (Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern, Purdue and Wisconsin), with only two swing games (OSU and Michigan).

4. Michigan: After the 1997 NC everyone hailed Jim Herrmanns the best young DC in the country. His defenses were never the same after Woodson left, and they too often were the reason Michigan lost critical games. With a new DC and eight starters returning, UM will field one of the better conference defenses. Offensively the load is going to fall upon Henne and Hart, operating behind a rebuilt OL. Scoring could be down, placing more of an onus on the defense to carry this team. Look for them to upset ND in South Bend. Five of the conference games should be wins (Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Wisconsin) with three swing games (Iowa, Michigan State and OSU).

5. Michigan State: Can MSU finally establish a relative level of consistency that will be maintained throughout the season? Offensively the Spartans will be strong with Stanton under center. With an established backup in Hoyer, OC Dave Baldwin will permit Stanton to once again be a dual threat. Defensively this team is young along the front four and in the secondary. This unit as a whole needs to step up and be physical with teams, a trait missing for several seasons. The Spartans have the capability of winning 8+ games, but will they? The Spartans should be favored in four conference games (Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern), but it is how they do in their swing games (Michigan, OSU, Penn State, Purdue) that will determine their fate.

6. Minnesota: No more Maroney, and losing Russell is going to hinder the Gopher running game. Losing three starting OL will also compound the problem as well. QB Bryan Cupito does not have the ability to carry this team alone on the strength of his passing, so scoring will be down. Defensively Minnesota has to rebuild its front four that will further burden a secondary that struggles to cover effectively. Their offensive losses are going to make it difficult on the Gophers as five of their games appear to be guaranteed losses (Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue). Three swing games (Indiana, Penn State, Wisconsin) will determine if they can be kept out of the cellar.

7. Northwestern: The tragic death of Randy Walker alone is going to make the 2006 season a difficult one for the Wildcats. They have to replace the key element of their offense from last year, QB Brett Basanez, with a very inexperienced QB. With most of the OL intact, expect the new QB to do allot less throwing and more handing off to 2005 freshman sensation, Tyrell Sutton. The defense returns eight, but lost its heart and soul with the graduation of LB Tim McGarigle. I can only find two possible wins on NU’s schedule, New Hampshire and EMU, as they will likely go 0-8 in the conference.

8. Ohio State: Losing nine players from arguably the best defense will be a huge undertaking, yet some have OSU playing in the BCS Championship. I don’t buy it. OSU was unable to get to the championship last year with a very experienced and talented team, and now people believe that the replacements will perform at a higher level? OSU will be good, very good, but not BCS Championship good. The question becomes can Troy Smith put this team on his back and win like Vince Young did last year? The Buckeye offense has playmakers in Ginn, Gonzalez, and Pittman to accompany Smith, but the offense alone won’t lead them to the BCS title game. Like Michigan the Buckeyes have five assured conference wins (Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State), and three swing games (Iowa, Michigan State, Michigan) that will determine if they will win the conference.

9. Penn State: Much like OSU the Nittany Lions lost a considerable amount of talent on defense, even though they do have the best defensive player in the conference returning in Paul Posluszny. Offensively PSU losses as much if not more with having to replace QB Michael Robinson, and four offensive linemen. Last year the offense finally came to life and actually put points on the board so that the defense would not be required to pitch a shutout every game in order to win. This year, not only will the PSU offense struggle to score, but their defense will in all likelihood give up more points than they have the past two seasons. PSU has one guaranteed victory (Northwestern), two losses (Michigan, Ohio State) and five swing games (Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota, Purdue, Wisconsin). The end result will be PSU finishing at or near .500.

10. Purdue: No Michigan or OSU on the schedule, an entire defense returning, and an offense poised to make things happen. Everything was in place for the Boilermakers to not only vie for the conference title, but a January 1 bowl game was almost assured. All these advantages were for naught, as PU missed its first post season bowl game under Joe Tiller, and finished a disappointing 5-6. This year the Boilermakers have to rebuild heavily on defense, and hope that the offense will have enough opportunities to score. With a 13-game schedule, PU shouldn’t have too much difficulty in finding four conference wins (Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Indiana), but Iowa will be a loss, leaving their three swing games (Illinois, Michigan State, Penn State) to determine if they can achieve 7 wins or more.

11. Wisconsin: The Bret Bielema era begins in Madison with a major rebuilding job on the offensive side of the ball. Bielema has to replace 8 departing starters from an offense that finished third in the conference in scoring. With QB John Stocco returning for his third year, and only two veteran offensive linemen up front, the Badgers will rely on their improving defense to keep them in ball games. The Badgers were young last year defensively, but they improved throughout the season, and dominated an Auburn offense in the Capital One Bowl. The entire front four returns, as do three members of the secondary. If the offense comes around this team is capable of winning eight games, if not, they will finish near .500. Conference wins (Indiana, Northwestern), losses (Iowa, Michigan, Purdue), and three swing games (Illinois, Minnesota, Penn State).